A Little History
I don't know about you, but when I moved out here to Colorado I was confused as hell about how to get out into the woods to hunt. I moved from Virginia, where I could scout all I wanted, purchase an over-the-counter tag which allowed me to take six deer, three turkeys, a bear, and waterfowl up to legal bag limits. All for $110 and a 6-month season on any public land in the state. Hunting pressure was low, but we also had over a million white tail deer when I left in 2017.
When I started researching western big game hunting and their complicated draw systems, my first question was what in the fudgesicle is a hunt code and why is it written in Martian? Naturally, I reached out to some new friends I had made who pointed me to other websites like GoHunt and OnX's Toprut, which helped to a degree. But I always felt wanting for more data, because I knew others were using these systems too and I just wasn't getting all the information I was looking for. Is their data right? How do they determine their predictions? What assumptions are they making? Blah blah blah.
How And Why We Do It Differently
I am an engineer by trade and have a strong background in instrumentation and analysis, which is a nerdy way of saying I look at data. I learned that Colorado Parks and Wildlife publishes an enormous amount of hunting data each year and they have dedicated field scientists who actually provide pretty solid scouting reports (Herd Management Plans) of what they call Data Analysis Units (DAU's). Being the curious individual I am, and without really thinking it through, I embarked on a very frustrating journey of importing the millions (yes, millions) of published draw and harvest data for all of the Colorado big game species. This took a few thousand lines of code because CPW publishes everything in PDF, which is not easy to extract from. You ever see the video of the guy at work slamming his keyboard with his fists and bashing his monitor? That was me on more than one occasion. By the time I realized how much of a pain in the ass it was going to be to extract all that data into a useable format for me to manipulate, I was almost done and pushed through.
This data, by the way, is the same stuff that GoHunt and Toprut base their predictions on. So now how do I make it better? Enter my friend Aaron, who very casually suggests I use the data to train a machine learning (ML) model (a subcategory of artificial intelligence, AI) to make the predictions I was looking for. I had worked with AI/ML a little bit to identify data trends for my engineering work, but soon realized the enormous benefits generating the draw and harvest probability predictions this way would have. He wanted to get involved, and so Western Big Game LLC was born.
First, I think most of us have heard of point creep. If you haven't, here is a good article from GoHunt explaining the phenomenon. You can thank the bastards who accumulate preference or bonus points year after year and then apply for units where they might only need 10 points instead of their 15, but they want to be damn sure they get a tag in a highly desirable unit and season. Yeah...that's right, I know all about you. Well, in nerd-speak, our draw probability tool has a temporal aspect to it, along with a nifty correlation with past preference point awardees, that actually accounts for the point creep phenomenon. Drum roll.....meaning when you use our FREE draw probability tool, the percentages you see actually estimate the odds those point-creep-driving bastards will apply for the same hunt code you will. It accounts for all kinds of cool stuff that normal statistical analysis, used by the bigger hunt planning sites, will miss or be unable to account for. I know what you're thinking, and you're welcome.
I mentioned that I was super confused about the western big game draw system when I moved here from the east coast, so I also wanted to create a tool that helped newcomers and out-of-staters get pointed in the right direction. You only get one preference point per year, so when you have a few, you want to make them count. Quick sidenote and interesting fact: There were over a million hunters over the last 5 years in Colorado alone who wasted their top choices on their applications. One poor bastard used seven preference points (seven years of points!!) to draw the same code I drew with my second choice. Talk about a face-palm, but this shit is confusing and exactly why I built this site.
I was always nervous about applying with a first-choice hunt code because I wanted to get the best use of my accumulated points. Drawing a tag is only the first step guys. The ultimate goal is to harvest the animal you're after, right? So, Aaron and I built our HOPE tool. I just want to point out that based on historical draw and harvest probabilities across Colorado, it is very aptly named. It takes your hunter status (pref points, residency, age, etc.) and actually gives you suggestions on hunt codes to apply for that maximize your odds of getting the license AND harvesting the animal you're after. I would only recommend using that tool if you are determined to hunt in the upcoming season and are open to new units, but it will put you in the best unit and season to maximize your success. To my knowledge, none of the other "big" hunt planning sites provide a service like this. Again, I know what you're thinking, and you're welcome.
Final Remarks
Lastly, I want to reiterate that all of our tools are free. Just use them. They will not let you down. You don't need to enter any pesky user information, and we don't collect any data from you to use these tools.
Shameless plug: We do have a few data packages for sale that, coupled with our draw probability and HOPE tools, give you everything the GoHunt's and Topruts of the world give you, just maybe not in as distilled a package. These data packages include a searchable and sortable spreadsheet I built which provides a ton of information if you are looking to get away from other hunters. It also includes all of the DAU scouting reports CPW publishes every year in a nice, consolidated format. Purchase if you like, or just use our free stuff. Totally up to you. They are really only for sale to cover our website and deployment expenses, so I made them pretty inexpensive for what you get (I always want bang-for-my-buck too).
Anyway, I hope you enjoy the tools. Feel free to reach out via email if you have any questions. We have some other cool things to release in the near future that will help you with your hunt planning, so keep an eye out. Alternatively, you can send an email letting us know you'd like to be notified and I'll add you to our list. If you choose to do that, we will not give your contact information to anyone. That's not what we are about.
As a final final final note, I just want to mention that managing and updating this site is not our full-time profession. I think it is important to know that because it means technical support and updates will take a back seat to our full-time jobs, which feed us and our families. With that out of the way, however, it is something we are super passionate about and we really want to help other hunters. It is a great community and one we will continue to support however we can.
Many blessings and hope to see you out in the woods!
Craig.
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